All time references are in CEST
Surveying Ukrainian Refugees in Europe: Implementation, Methods, Experiments, and Challenges |
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| Session Organisers | Dr Jean Philippe Décieux (University of Bonn and Federal Institute of Population Research (BiB)) Ms Silvia Schwanhäuser (Institute for Employment Research) |
| Time | Tuesday 18 July, 09:00 - 10:30 |
| Room | |
Since the start of the war in the Ukraine, many Ukrainians became internally displaced people or sought refuge in the surrounding European countries. According to Eurostat, around 4.3 million war refugees from Ukraine had received protection under the Temporary-Mass-Protection-Directive in Europe at June 2024. Such a massive displacement and inflow of refugees poses a significant challenge for local and national politics, administration and society of the refuge giving regions. Hence, there is a need for appropriate empirical evidence, in order to take efficient actions, grant needed support, and helping effective social integration.
In response to this growing demand, a large number of survey projects have been initiated in Europe. While initially, the focus was on rapid and cost-effective ad-hoc surveys to meet urgent data needs, there has been a notable shift towards the development of more sustainable panel infrastructures and cross-national or comparative studies in recent time. All these projects surveying Ukrainian refugees as hard-to-reach population face special circumstances and conditions. We would like to bring these projects surveying Ukrainian refugees together for an exchange of their experiences and to discuss survey methodological and practical challenges. We particularly encourage submissions that offer a perspective on the following dimensions of survey research:
• Different sampling strategies and approaches
• Comparative perspectives
• Approaches to reach the target population
• Different survey designs and modes
• Questionnaire design and translation
• Fieldwork organization and monitoring
• Attrition, follow-up rules, and experiences in tracing respondents’ return or onward migration
• Innovative tracking techniques for longitudinal designs
• Experimental approaches
• Cross-national comparisons and approaches
Keywords: hard-to-reach, refugee survey, sampling, probability vs. non-probability sampling
Ms Paulina Tabery (Public Opinion Research Centre, Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Sciences) - Presenting Author
Mr Martin Spurny (Public Opinion Research Centre, Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Sciences)
Dr Yana Leontiyeva (Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Sciences)
In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Czech Republic has become a significant recipient of Ukrainian refugees. Following three years of war, approximately 350,000 remain in the country, representing the highest number per 1,000 inhabitants of any country in the European Union.
In response to this crisis, a range of institutions, including governmental and non-profit entities, have expressed a strong interest in understanding the needs of these refugees and in monitoring their integration and well-being in the Czech Republic, with a particular focus on long-term perspectives. This initiative has led to the establishment of the Panel Study Ukraine/Voice of Ukrainians project, which has set up and is operating an online panel of Ukrainian refugees. The inaugural survey on this panel was conducted in June 2022, and since then, it has regularly surveyed a range of topics including the economic situation of households, housing, employment, children's education, and the comprehension of the Czech language.
The purpose of this paper is twofold: firstly, to present the process of establishing and maintaining the panel; and secondly, to discuss the challenges associated with longitudinal surveys of Ukrainian refugees. The challenges encompass the changing target population, the accessibility of population statistics, the representativeness of the sample and the implementation of data weighting. The ethical and practical challenges of questionnaire design will also be presented.
Dr Andreas Ette (Federal Institute for Population Research) - Presenting Author
Dr Jean Philippe Décieux (Federal Institute for Population Research)
Mrs Karelis Olivo Rumpf (Federal Institute for Population Research)
Understanding the dynamics of refugee mobility, particularly return migration, is critical for informing policies and programs that support displaced populations. Surveying highly mobile populations like Ukrainian refugees presents unique methodological challenges, including attrition, nonresponse, and tracking individuals across borders. This study evaluates the feasibility of tracing Ukrainian refugee return migration within a probability-based panel study.
We leverage data from the first five waves of the BiB/FReDA study, a longitudinal survey of Ukrainian refugees initiated in Germany during the early months of the war. Respondents were interviewed every six months, using register-based sampling for the initial wave and traditional postal invitation letters. Subsequent waves utilized email communication, enabling continued engagement with respondents who left Germany, returned to Ukraine, or moved to third countries.
This study incorporates innovative tracking techniques to enhance traditional survey methodologies. Findings are evaluated using two strategies. First, we compare the socio-economic structure of respondents across the first five waves (2022–2024) with a refreshment sample of Ukrainian refugees drawn in 2024 using identical register-based sampling. Second, the study exploits register-based sampling data to track address changes for intra-Germany mobility and individual or administrative deregistrations indicating return or onward migration. The first strategy provides indirect measures of return migration, while the second offers direct comparisons of identified return migrants within the panel against external registration data. Together, these strategies evaluate the effectiveness of the tracking techniques.
This research contributes to survey methodology by showcasing practices for capturing migration patterns in highly mobile and vulnerable populations through a transnational lens. It also offers valuable lessons for surveying other displaced populations in crisis settings, advancing both methodological approaches and substantive insights.
Dr Katrina Lloyd (Queen's University Belfast) - Presenting Author
Professor Laura Lundy (Queen's University Belfast)
Professor Bronagh Byrne (Queen's University Belfast)
Ms Evie Heard (Queen's University Belfast)
Armed conflict raises significant concerns about the potential negative impacts on children’s rights. War can reduce children’s access to basic services and protection as well as their overarching right to have their views sought and taken seriously in matters affecting them. The focus of this paper is on the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on children living there and those who were displaced by the conflict. The study was funded by Terre des hommes (Tdh) and conducted by the Centre for Children’s Rights (CCR) at Queen’s University Belfast using its children’s rights-based approach. To that end, a draft survey asking about children’s experiences of the war was developed by CCR and Tdh staff working in Ukraine in November 2022. A consultation was carried out with 28 children in Ukraine (10 boys, 18 girls aged 8-17) to seek their views on the survey content. Following revision, the survey was sent for feedback to Children’s Research Advisory Groups (CRAGs); 22 children (10 boys, 12 girls aged 11-18). Nineteen of the children lived in Ukraine and three had relocated to Ireland. A final version of the survey was produced and translated into Ukrainian by Tdh staff. The survey was conducted online in March 2023 for four weeks. In total, 1395 children and young people took part. Of these, 63% did not have to move because of the war while 37% were displaced across 21 different countries. This paper describes the challenges of developing, translating and running an online survey with, and for, children during an ongoing conflict. It presents key findings from the study demonstrating that important rights like the right to learn, play and grow have been made harder to enjoy, especially for children displaced from their home in Ukraine.
Dr Steffen Pötzschke (GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) - Presenting Author
Dr Bernd Weiß (GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences)
Dr Andreas Ette (Federal Institute for Population Research)
Dr Manuel Siegert (Federal Office for Migration and Refugees)
Professor Sabine Zinn (German Institute for Economic Research)
Ms Silvia Schwanhäuser (Institute for Employment Research)
Recently arrived refugees are notoriously hard-to-sample and survey. Yet, political realities indicate that the need for research on and with refugees might rather increase than decrease in the foreseeable future. Hence, the question of how survey sampling design might impact sample composition is highly relevant.
In refugee research, non-probability sampling has long been used, for example, due to the absence of reliable sampling frames, budget constraints, the need for quick data availability, or a combination of all these reasons. Despite the inherent analytical limitations of non-probability-based samples such data can provide crucial insights. However, it is important to better understand how such samples might differ from probability-based ones.
Against this background, we focus on comparing the sample composition of a probability-based (n ≈ 11,000) and non-probability-based (n ≈ 9,000) survey of Ukrainian refugees in Germany. While the former stems from a project carried out by a consortium of German research institutes that used register-based sampling (Brücker et al., 2022), the latter comes from a survey whose respondents were recruited through social media advertisements. Both surveys were conducted within a time frame of 10 months. Since the second survey largely replicated the questionnaire of the first, our data sources show a high level of measurement equivalence. We investigate how the samples differ from each other and from the distribution of the target population’s key sociodemographic information in administrative data at the respective time of data collection. Furthermore, we will highlight the specific advantages and shortcomings of both sampling approaches.
Mr Johannes Schuett (DIW Berlin e. V. / SOEP) - Presenting Author
Mrs Elena Sommer (DIW Berlin e. V. / SOEP)
Previous research has highlighted attrition as one of the key challenges for probability panels of migrants and refugees (e.g. Jacobsen & Siegert 2023; Lynn et al. 2018; Kalter 2006). Among other factors, attrition can be attributed to residential mobility, language barriers, and the specific socio-demographic composition of migrant and refugee samples. The IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, which has been conducted annually in Germany since 2016, regularly draws refresher samples to account for panel attrition and changes in refugee migration patterns. In 2023, a refresher sample M9 was added to the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees, consisting of two subsamples – refugees from Ukraine and refugees from other countries. In the first wave, participation was similar in both subsamples among households that had completed a short self-administered contact form before being invited for a face-to-face interview. However, in the second wave in 2024, participation was much higher in the Ukrainian refugee subsample than in the non-Ukrainian refugee subsample, despite the use of the same questionnaires, contact methods and incentive strategy. We expect that differences in the socio-demographic composition of these two subsamples – such as differences in gender and age composition, legal status and labour force participation – account for the differences in attrition between the first and second waves. In our study, we analyse the composition effect on participation in the second wave by considering household, respondent, and interviewer characteristics as well as interview aspects (e.g. change of interviewer, language, and mode preferences). Our study makes an additional contribution to the research on attrition in migrant panels by offering a comparative perspective within the broader refugee population in Germany and going beyond a descriptive comparison of survey participation by analysing the factors relevant to panel attrition across different groups of refugees.
Ms Rebecca Pearce (Ipsos UK) - Presenting Author
Mr Sami Nevala (EU Agency for Fundamental Rights)
This paper will describe our approach to researching hard-to reach populations in a time of geo-political and humanitarian crises. The project, conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights, interviewed women aged 18-74, who left Ukraine after the 24th February 2022, and were living in Czechia, Germany or Poland. Comprising of two elements - a face-to-face survey and qualitative interviews - it was designed to provide insights into the prevalence of physical, sexual, and psychological violence against women, while in Ukraine, during transit, or in their EU country of residence.
The paper will focus on the key considerations involved in delivering the project:
Developing a random probability sampling approach for the survey, based on available and accessible sampling sources. The most suitable approach proved to be a location sampling method, which derived representative samples of the target population across all three countries. In each country, recruitment took place in at least 35 location centres, which taken together, were likely to be visited by most members of the target group.
How to conduct ethical research on sensitive subjects with women who have been displaced, whilst minimising the risk of harm. Considerations included the interviewer’s role, how self-completion was used for particularly sensitive survey questions, and the need to ensure privacy when conducting recruitment in public places.
How to recruit and train Ukrainian interviewers - some of whom may also have been displaced - whilst also ensuring their well-being. A consideration was to employ native language counsellors for the duration of fieldwork, so that respondents and interviewers could receive a counselling session if required.
The paper will close with a reflection on how the data will contribute to a better understanding of the experiences and needs of women who have fled the Ukraine war.